As the US economy continues to stave off a recession.it wouldn’t have come as a surprise to see consumerspull back on their holiday spending in 2023.In fact,when we checked in with consumers in our annualback-to-school survey,they were cautious about theeconomy and were skipping nonessentials to rein inspending.However,our 2023 Deloitte holiday surveyresults highlight that back-to-school(a commodityevent)and holiday (a splurge event)have very differentdrivers.This holiday season,consumers are steadfastin their intent to live in the moment and make itmemorable.They plan to spend an average of $1,652this season,surpassing prepandemic figures for thefirst time.
There are several factors at play.Participation levelshave been inching up since record lows in 2021;thisyear,95%of consumers say they plan to purchaseduring the holiday season.In addition,consumers arefactoring in inflation,with three-quarters expectinghigher prices year over year (YoM.We’re also seeing aresurgence in the middle-income group after stagnantspending the last several years(+26%),while the$200K+group plans to spend 229%more this year.
Consumers are prioritizing nongift purchases (+25%YoY)this season as they restock holiday decorations,furnishings,and nongift apparel.And they’re planningto splurge on themselves,with 75%expecting to self-gift this year.In short,the tinsel is no longer in atangle.
With many shopping trends finding equilibrium thisyear,it seems like we’re approaching 2019 levels,butthere are still cracks in the foundation.Savings rateshave dwindled,I and 17%of respondents say they havestudent loans to start repaying this fall,causing someto cut back on holiday expenditures.
For retailers,a winning strategy may come down todriving value around key promotional events forinflation-wary customers.Expected participation ratesfor promotional events are robust,with a quarterplanning to shop on October promotional days,and66%(versus 49%in 2022)planning to shop the week ofBlack Friday-Cyber Monday(BFCM).The promotionaltiming will be crucial as consumers intend to wrap uptheir shopping in just 5.8 weeks—a time frame thathas shrunk from 7.4 weeks pre pandemic.The oldretail adage of “having the right product,at the rightprice,at the right time”may ring true more than everthis year.
Happy shopping!
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