实现1.5 °C 目标的可靠途径.pdf

Global energy related CO₂ emissions rose 0.9% in 2022, reaching an all-time high of

36.8 billion tonnes(Gt). Land-use related CO2 emissions remained at around 6 Gt in

2022, while energy related methane emissions rose in 2022 but remained below therecord levels of 2019. The window to a credible pathway towards limiting warming to

1.5℃ in 2100 is therefore rapidly closing.

Declining costs for clean energy technologies and new policies have shaved around1℃from projected 2100 warming compared to the pre-Paris baseline. The ambitionsthat countries have put on the table go a significant way to meeting the 1.5°℃ goal. Ifimplemented on time and in full, countries’ net zero pledges would be sufficient tohold warming to around 1.7°C in 2100. The key question is therefore what needs tobe done now to strengthen near-term action to put the world on a credible pathwayconsistent with the 1.5 ℃ goal. Four pillars are key:

In the energy sector, decarbonising electricity, accelerating energy efficiency andelectrification are the critical tools. Capacity additions of renewables need to triplefrom 2022 levels by 2030, reaching around 1200 GW annually, representing onaverage 90% of new generation capacity each year. Electric car sales should reach amarket share of around 60% by 2030, while zero emissions medium and heavy freighttrucks should reach a market share of around 35% by the same year.

Reducing deforestation to net zero by 2030 – in line with The Glasgow Leaders’

Declaration on Forests and Land Use – provides the largest share of CO₂ emissions

reductions from the land-use sector.